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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 9 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to NO 29, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model