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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 6 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 29-C.Edmonds left guard to ARI 30 for no gain (93-D.Onyemata).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.52 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model