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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 59

New Orleans Saints 10 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to ARI 21, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model