4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2019-10-20 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 17.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

MIA
17.0%
BUF
83.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.366 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.175 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): -0.081 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF on 7 more days rest than MIA

Predicted Final Score

MIA 16
–
BUF 29
Projected margin: BUF by 13 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

MIA

Reshad Jones S Out Chest
Daniel Kilgore C Out Knee
Avery Moss DE Out Ankle
Jakeem Grant WR Questionable Hamstring
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Knee

BUF

Taron Johnson CB Questionable Hamstring
Matt Milano LB Questionable Hamstring
Corey Thompson LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 21
–
BUF 31

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:58 FG BUF (10:58) 4-S.Hauschka 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. MIA 0 – BUF 3
  • Q1 03:52 FG BUF (3:52) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. MIA 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD MIA (15:00) 27-K.Ballage left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BUF 6
  • Q2 10:11 FG BUF (10:11) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. MIA 7 – BUF 9
  • Q2 05:58 TD MIA (5:58) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 11-D.Parker for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Flare pass, caught at BUF 11. MIA 13 – BUF 9
  • Q4 13:55 TD BUF (13:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – BUF 15
  • Q4 06:36 TD BUF (6:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-C.Beasley for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line, slanting to front corner of end zone. MIA 14 – BUF 23
  • Q4 01:54 TD MIA (1:54) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – BUF 24
  • Q4 01:45 TD BUF (Onside Kick formation) 7-J.Sanders kicks onside 10 yards from MIA 35 to MIA 45. 23-M.Hyde for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 21 – BUF 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (10:58) 4-S.Hauschka 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:15) 2-M.Haack punts 43 yards to BUF 24, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 30 for 6 yards (55-J.Baker, 81-D.Smythe).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 84%

    (3:52) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%

    (10:11) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:36) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to MIA 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-P.Williams.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:18) 2-M.Haack punts 47 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at BUF 25 for 7 yards (44-D.Lacey).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (6:42) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Haack up the middle to BUF 2 for 2 yards (27-T.White).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:14) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 25%

    (9:03) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to MIA 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-P.Williams.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:12) 2-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BUF 27, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 36 for 9 yards (30-C.Lammons).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:09) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to MIA 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-P.Williams to MIA 40 for 19 yards (46-J.Johnson).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%

    (2:39) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to BUF 34 for 9 yards (57-L.Alexander) [49-T.Edmunds]. Caught along sideline at BUF 35.