Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 9 – Miami Dolphins 14

(4:36) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to MIA 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-P.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.80 EP
71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model