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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to BUF 34 for 9 yards (57-L.Alexander) [49-T.Edmunds]. Caught along sideline at BUF 35.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.46 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model