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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 4-S.Hauschka 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model