Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 24

(5:12) 2-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BUF 27, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 36 for 9 yards (30-C.Lammons).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model