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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 17 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to MIA 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-P.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.77 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model