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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 26

Buffalo Bills 6 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model