Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.297 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- WAS offense: -0.204 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- Josh Rosen (MIA): -0.315 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- MIA defense: +0.201 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- MIA on 7 more days rest than WAS
- WAS defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
WAS
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 11:42 TD WAS (11:42) 8-C.Keenum pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – MIA 0
- Q2 01:13 FG MIA (1:13) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. WAS 7 – MIA 3
- Q3 09:48 TD WAS (9:48) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – MIA 3
- Q3 04:19 FG WAS (4:19) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 17 – MIA 3
- Q4 11:07 TD MIA (11:07) 27-K.Ballage up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 17 – MIA 9
- Q4 00:10 TD MIA (:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 11-D.Parker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-67-D.Kilgore was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. WAS 17 – MIA 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EPp(convert) 70%
(13:00) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to MIA 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-P.Williams to MIA 13 for no gain (30-T.Apke).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 14 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(10:22) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 60 yards to WAS 13, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-T.Quinn ran ob at WAS 28 for 15 yards (35-W.Aikens). PENALTY on WAS-13-K.Harmon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 28.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 74Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 60%
(9:17) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to MIA 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-P.Williams.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 16 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(7:46) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to WAS 38, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn. PENALTY on WAS-32-J.Moreland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 38.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:19) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to MIA 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at MIA 38 for 12 yards (51-S.Hamilton).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 34%
(2:40) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 27-K.Ballage. 27-K.Ballage right end pushed ob at WAS 39 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 15 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 36%
(:24) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 37 yards to WAS 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-42-P.Laird.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 50%
(8:14) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right to 83-N.O'Leary to WAS 37 for 2 yards (20-L.Collins) [52-R.Anderson]. FUMBLES (20-L.Collins), and recovers at WAS 36. 83-N.O'Leary to WAS 36 for no gain (20-L.Collins). Washington challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
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Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 52%
(6:20) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to MIA 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-P.Williams.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 88%
(1:13) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(13:21) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to WAS 30, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(4:19) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(3:18) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 47 yards to WAS 37, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 36 for -1 yards (33-J.Wiltz).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%
(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(9:57) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to MIA 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-P.Williams.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 27%
(7:58) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 36 yards to WAS 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(6:28) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to MIA 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at WAS 41 for 21 yards (5-T.Way).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 48 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 27%
(4:53) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 47 yards to WAS 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 51 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 21%
(2:11) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to MIA 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at MIA 25 for 9 yards (39-J.Reaves).