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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 27-K.Ballage. 27-K.Ballage right end pushed ob at WAS 39 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.31 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model