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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 66

Washington Commanders 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to MIA 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-P.Williams to MIA 13 for no gain (30-T.Apke).

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP