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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(7:58) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 36 yards to WAS 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.81 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model