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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 3

Washington Commanders 14 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 3, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP