Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 69

Washington Commanders 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(6:19) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to MIA 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at MIA 38 for 12 yards (51-S.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.57 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model