Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 84

Miami Dolphins 3 – Washington Commanders 17

(3:18) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 47 yards to WAS 37, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 36 for -1 yards (33-J.Wiltz).

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.25 EP
69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model