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Tennessee Titans

1-2 HC Mike Vrabel
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Jacksonville Jaguars

1-2 HC Doug Marrone
Thursday 2019-09-19 · 20:20 ET TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

TEN
60.0%
JAX
40.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.190 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 23 16–30
–
JAX 18 11–25
Projected margin: TEN by 5 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

TEN

David Fluellen RB Out Hamstring
Chris Milton CB Out Collarbone
Kevin Pamphile G Out Knee
Wesley Woodyard LB Questionable Quadricep

JAX

D.J. Alexander LB Out Hamstring
Josh Oliver TE Out Hamstring
A.J. Bouye CB Questionable Hip
Josh Robinson CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 7
–
JAX 20

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:07 TD JAX (13:07) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – JAX 6
  • Q1 06:42 TD JAX (6:42) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – JAX 13
  • Q3 07:59 FG JAX (7:59) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 0 – JAX 17
  • Q4 12:08 TD TEN (12:08) 22-D.Henry left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – JAX 17
  • Q4 07:38 FG JAX (7:38) 4-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 7 – JAX 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (13:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-M.Orzech. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 16, RECOVERED by JAX-48-L.Jacobs at TEN 7. 48-L.Jacobs to TEN 7 for no gain (55-J.Brown). Penalty on TEN-21-M.Butler, Offensive Holding, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 16 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:19) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to JAX 29, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 38 for 9 yards (53-D.Bates).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 34%

    (3:34) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to JAX 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to TEN 44, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 20%

    (11:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 30 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-58-A.Calitro, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 23.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:45) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-29-J.Robinson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to JAX 5, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:23) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to JAX 44, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 20 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (:52) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to JAX 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (11:31) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at JAX 20 for -9 yards (93-C.Campbell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 88%

    (7:59) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 17 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 32%

    (1:12) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 75%

    (7:38) 4-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (3:28) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Westbrook (26-L.Ryan).

    See the full breakdown →