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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-M.Orzech. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 16, RECOVERED by JAX-48-L.Jacobs at TEN 7. 48-L.Jacobs to TEN 7 for no gain (55-J.Brown). Penalty on TEN-21-M.Butler, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP