Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

(:52) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to JAX 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.39 EP
77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -2.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model