4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 46

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to JAX 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.40 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model