4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 30 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-58-A.Calitro, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.98 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP