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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:28) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Westbrook (26-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.40 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model