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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

BAL
33.4%
KC
66.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.223 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.337 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 24
–
KC 29
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

BAL

Jimmy Smith CB Out Knee
Brynden Trawick S Out Elbow
Patrick Ricard DT Questionable Back
Mark Andrews TE Questionable Foot

KC

Eric Fisher T Out Groin
Tyreek Hill WR Out Shoulder
Damien Williams RB Out Knee
LeSean McCoy RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 28
–
KC 33

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:28 TD BAL (4:28) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – KC 0
  • Q2 14:21 TD KC (14:21) 25-L.McCoy left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – KC 6
  • Q2 07:58 TD KC (7:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – KC 13
  • Q2 03:12 TD KC (3:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 17-M.Hardman for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – KC 20
  • Q2 00:10 FG KC (:10) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. BAL 6 – KC 23
  • Q3 10:42 TD BAL (10:42) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram right tackle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 12 – KC 23
  • Q3 02:15 TD KC (2:15) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 25-L.McCoy for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – KC 29
  • Q4 12:27 TD BAL (12:27) 21-M.Ingram up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – KC 30
  • Q4 06:43 FG BAL (6:43) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 22 – KC 30
  • Q4 04:39 FG KC (4:39) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. BAL 22 – KC 33
  • Q4 02:10 TD BAL (2:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 28 – KC 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (5:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left end to KC 2 for 7 yards (35-C.Ward; 53-A.Hitchens).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:26) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to BAL 39 for 5 yards (54-D.Wilson).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 20%

    (10:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Brown.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:39) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to KC 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-28-J.Bethel.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:28) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to KC 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-D.Thomas to KC 17 for 9 yards (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 48%

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes Aborted. 62-A.Reiter FUMBLES at BAL 43, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at BAL 43. 15-P.Mahomes to BAL 42 for 1 yard (40-K.Young, 29-E.Thomas). FUMBLES (40-K.Young), recovered by KC-31-D.Williams at BAL 43. 31-D.Williams to BAL 43 for no gain (98-B.Williams).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 22%

    (6:29) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 81%

    (13:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 11-S.Roberts to KC 2 for 25 yards (29-K.Fuller) [90-E.Ogbah]. Kansas City challenged the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:49) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 15 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 89%

    (6:43) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (4:39) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.