4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 21

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.45 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model