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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 41

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes Aborted. 62-A.Reiter FUMBLES at BAL 43, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at BAL 43. 15-P.Mahomes to BAL 42 for 1 yard (40-K.Young, 29-E.Thomas). FUMBLES (40-K.Young), recovered by KC-31-D.Williams at BAL 43. 31-D.Williams to BAL 43 for no gain (98-B.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.40 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model