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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Baltimore Ravens 22

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model