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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 9

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(5:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left end to KC 2 for 7 yards (35-C.Ward; 53-A.Hitchens).

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.40 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 9, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model