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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(13:26) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to BAL 39 for 5 yards (54-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model