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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(13:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 11-S.Roberts to KC 2 for 25 yards (29-K.Fuller) [90-E.Ogbah]. Kansas City challenged the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.42 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model