Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- NE offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.306 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.182 EPA/dropback
- KC defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 20
NE
No players on the report.
KC
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:58 TD NE (6:58) 26-S.Michel left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – KC 0
- Q2 00:33 TD NE (:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-P.Dorsett for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – KC 0
- Q3 13:00 TD KC (13:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – KC 6
- Q3 04:07 FG NE (4:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 17 – KC 7
- Q4 14:56 TD KC (14:56) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 17 – KC 13
- Q4 07:52 TD KC (7:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam. Williams for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 17 – KC 20
- Q4 03:35 TD NE (3:35) 26-S.Michel up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – KC 21
- Q4 02:06 TD KC (2:06) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 24 – KC 27
- Q4 00:42 TD NE (:42) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 30 – KC 28
- Q4 00:11 FG KC (:11) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. NE 31 – KC 31
- Q5 10:10 TD NE (10:10) 34-R.Burkhead up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37 – KC 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EPp(convert) 74%
(12:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to NE 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 26 for 14 yards (21-E.Murray).
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Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 27%
(7:39) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to KC 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.
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Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(10:30) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to KC 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-T.Hill to KC 7 for -11 yards (50-R.Humber). PENALTY on KC-51-F.Zombo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at KC 7.
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Q3 KC 4th & 18 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(7:48) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to 50, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Edelman to KC 37 for 13 yards (30-C.West).
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Q3 NE 4th & 15 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%
(4:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
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Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 82%
(9:38) 34-R.Burkhead up the middle to KC 25 for no gain (49-D.Sorensen).
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Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(8:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to NE 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Edelman MUFFS catch, touched at NE 31, RECOVERED by KC-12-G.Dieter at NE 26. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to NE 28, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-12-G.Dieter.
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Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 10 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%
(3:35) 26-S.Michel up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.