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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 29

New England Patriots 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.08 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model