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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New England Patriots
4th & 1 at the 10
New England Patriots 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 21
What Actually Happened
(3:35) 26-S.Michel up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.29 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.11 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth -0.33 EP
KICK
+1.94 EP
- 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
