Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to NE 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Edelman MUFFS catch, touched at NE 31, RECOVERED by KC-12-G.Dieter at NE 26. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to NE 28, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-12-G.Dieter.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model