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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to NE 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 26 for 14 yards (21-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP