Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 61

New England Patriots 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to KC 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-T.Hill to KC 7 for -11 yards (50-R.Humber). PENALTY on KC-51-F.Zombo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at KC 7.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.24 EP
56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model