4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 25

New England Patriots 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 34-R.Burkhead up the middle to KC 25 for no gain (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.28 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model