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IND Away

Indianapolis Colts

10-6 HC Frank Reich
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

11-5 HC Bill O'Brien
Saturday 2019-01-05 · 16:35 ET NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

IND
56.1%
HOU
43.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.098 vs Andrew Luck (IND) +0.229 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

IND 24 17–31
–
HOU 23 16–30
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 18

IND

Ryan Grant WR Out Toe
Tyquan Lewis DE Out Knee
J.J. Wilcox S Doubtful Ankle
Clayton Geathers S Questionable Knee
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Ankle
Jabaal Sheard DE Questionable Knee
Zach Pascal WR Questionable Knee
Dontrelle Inman WR Questionable Shoulder

HOU

Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
Buddy Howell RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 21
–
HOU 7

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:37 TD IND (10:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – HOU 0
  • Q1 04:08 TD IND (4:08) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – HOU 0
  • Q2 06:29 TD IND (6:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 15-D.Inman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – HOU 0
  • Q4 11:03 TD HOU (11:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 16-K.Coutee for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. IND 21 – HOU 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:35) 8-T.Daniel punts 40 yards to IND 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 44%

    (:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 84-R.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore II at IND 40. 23-K.Moore II to 50 for 10 yards (84-R.Griffin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:58) 8-T.Daniel punts 60 yards to IND 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 35 for 14 yards (58-P.Kalambayi).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

    (1:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins [93-J.Sheard].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:53) 8-T.Daniel punts 46 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-5-J.Webb.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:43) 2-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to HOU 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. PENALTY on HOU-39-D.Burton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 34.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (9:15) 8-T.Daniel punts 51 yards to IND 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 23 for 6 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:15) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 49%

    (2:20) 2-R.Sanchez punts 32 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-26-C.Geathers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 40 for 7 yards (50-A.Walker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 44%

    (8:09) 2-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-20-J.Wilkins.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to IND 36 for 21 yards (30-G.Odum).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%

    (4:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 17-V.Smith [23-K.Moore II].

    See the full breakdown →