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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 24

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(4:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 17-V.Smith [23-K.Moore II].

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.79 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP