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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 45

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 84-R.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore II at IND 40. 23-K.Moore II to 50 for 10 yards (84-R.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.34 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model