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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 68

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 8-T.Daniel punts 51 yards to IND 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 23 for 6 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.72 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP