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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 9

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins [93-J.Sheard].

The Three Options

GO +3.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.44 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 9, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model