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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 57

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(6:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to IND 36 for 21 yards (30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.16 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model