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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 58

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 8-T.Daniel punts 46 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-5-J.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.55 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP