4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
GB Away

Green Bay Packers

HC Joe Philbin
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

GB
63.9%
NYJ
36.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.188 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ): -0.066 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 25
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: GB by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

GB

Kenny Clark DT Out Elbow
Will Redmond CB Out Shoulder
Randall Cobb WR Doubtful Concussion
Jason Spriggs T Doubtful Concussion
Jake Kumerow WR Questionable Hand

NYJ

Quincy Enunwa WR Out Ankle
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Doubtful Shoulder
Jordan Jenkins LB Questionable Ankle
Darryl Roberts CB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 44
–
NYJ 38

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 38 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:20 TD NYJ (2:20) 25-E.McGuire left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 09:09 TD NYJ (9:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 05:14 TD GB (5:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 16-J.Kumerow for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – NYJ 14
  • Q2 05:06 TD NYJ 2-M.Crosby kicks 64 yards from GB 35 to NYJ 1. 19-A.Roberts for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – NYJ 20
  • Q2 01:39 TD GB (1:39) 30-J.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – NYJ 21
  • Q2 00:06 FG GB (:06) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 17 – NYJ 21
  • Q3 08:20 FG GB (8:20) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 20 – NYJ 21
  • Q3 04:25 TD NYJ (4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 89-C.Herndon for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – NYJ 27
  • Q3 02:58 TD NYJ (2:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 25-E.McGuire for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – NYJ 34
  • Q4 11:49 FG GB (11:49) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 23 – NYJ 35
  • Q4 06:37 TD GB (6:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 29 – NYJ 35
  • Q4 01:16 TD GB (1:16) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 36 – NYJ 35
  • Q4 00:21 FG NYJ (:21) 2-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. GB 38 – NYJ 38
  • Q5 06:28 TD GB (6:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 44 – NYJ 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 79%

    (11:23) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 16 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 22%

    (9:08) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to NYJ 15, Center-43-H.Bradley. 19-A.Roberts ran ob at GB 45 for 40 yards (6-J.Scott). PENALTY on NYJ-52-A.Wint, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 27.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:20) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to NYJ 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 61%

    (9:45) 14-S.Darnold left guard to GB 33 for 3 yards (27-J.Jones).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:07) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to GB 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 38-T.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at GB 28, recovered by GB-82-J.Moore at GB 24. PENALTY on NYJ-40-T.Cannon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 24.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (8:20) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:17) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to GB 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (11:49) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:44) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to GB 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-40-T.Cannon.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 34%

    (7:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 85-R.Tonyan to NYJ 35 for 11 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 69 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (4:34) (Punt formation) 45-R.Miles up the middle to NYJ 35 for 4 yards (44-A.Morrison).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (3:20) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to GB 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-17-C.Peake.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (1:16) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (:21) 2-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.