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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to NYJ 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.60 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model