Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 69

New York Jets 21 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to GB 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 38-T.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at GB 28, recovered by GB-82-J.Moore at GB 24. PENALTY on NYJ-40-T.Cannon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.72 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model