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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 58

New York Jets 35 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to GB 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-40-T.Cannon.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model