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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 17 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.28 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP