Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 80

New York Jets 35 – Green Bay Packers 20

(14:17) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to GB 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.43 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model